blog: buy low sell high

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nikos
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blog: buy low sell high

Post by nikos »

here's the comment area for today's blog post found at
https://www.zabkat.com/blog/how-to-invest-etf.htm
Tuxman
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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I mainly invest in chip manufacturers and Microsoft. I’m happy.
ETFs have a higher probability of leaving you with no loss, but I prefer to know what I own and what I don’t own... and I’m really on the winning side with my decisions.
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nikos
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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but you have to watch your portfolio frequently how it's doing, no? Some people see this as a hobby but not for me!
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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There are apps, browser plug-ins, desktop applications and websites for that. Problem(s) solved!
(I can tell how Microsoft is doing without looking: Still not dying. One of the advantages of buying into companies which you know.)
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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1st rule of investing : NEVER EVER trust a financial advisor. (they're only interested in selling their garbage so called "AAA product").
2nd : NEVER take tips from anyone about a equity, if the person has insider knowledge it might pan out, buts that's illegal.
3rd : Never trust a company's Prospectus, the CFO's job is to obfuscate the truth and cook the books.
4th : No software that can predict the future value of any equity.
5th : Know the difference between INVESTING and SPECULATING.
6th : If you can't afford to loose money DO NOT SPECULATE. Especially not in day trading, you will never outsmart super computers.
7th : Never borrow money to speculate in order to cover margin.
8th : Do Not invest in Penny Stocks, bottom pickers always get shit.
9th : If you're going to speculate at a minimum "paper trade" for at least a year before committing your hard earned cash to a trade. this is to develop a system that "might work" and to teach discipline when trading.

Long term Investing is akin to the Rabbit and Tortoise analogy, Long term will earn/save you money but it requires patience, be happy if you're getting 10% per annum, that's a good return. The rabbit gets lucky with MAYBE a good speculative trade here and there, but the odds of Mr. Rabbit loosing everything due to greed and downturns are very high. Anyone can make money during a Bull Market but it requires skill not to lose that money, know when to leave, if speculating always have a stop loss, Do not "HOPE" that it will recover.

No software can mathematically predict the future, its impossible due to the many unknown "human and natural" variables, some of these "human and natural" variables are illegal hence definitely unknowable to the software.
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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basically you are restating what's written in the article!
points 1-9 are basically "do it yourself" and instead of guessing about this or other "magic investment", buy the whole market with a global ETF

no software required with oracle properties, just hold for long and trust that past long-term performance of the total market is an indicator of future. This is the highest uncertainty really, but at least for the past 100 years or so is the norm
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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nikos wrote: 2020 Dec 31, 07:37 and instead of guessing about this or other "magic investment", buy the whole market with a global ETF
A Global Index is not buy and forget, it still requires maintenance perhaps not as frequently as speculating but one still needs to pay attention. A Global index is still subject to bull and bear markets and I don't agree with your "Don't time the market" philosophy because if one buys at the peak of a bull run prior to a crash then it will take years or a very long time to return to parity let alone turn a profit.

The problem with ANY Index fund is that it has become common practice for the big financial institutions to pass on toxic assets as AAA, its all one big con and lie. Credit card debit is being passed on as a AAA investment which fund managers buy because its labelled as AAA and they don't ask questions because of you know "Trust the big financial institutions" and keep the management fees rolling, yeah right just ask Greenland, Norway or any pension fund that trusted these AAA rated products peddled by the snake oil salesman, remember 2008, Greenland went bust because it had trusted AAA ratings for its pension fund investments.
Even junk corporate debt is passed on by big financial institutions as AAA which pension and Index fund managers then include in their various indexes and portfolios.

I would only consider investing in Large Corporations which are to big to fail through buying their bonds, stocks with dividends, or a basket of those companies, and yes they are to big to fail as has been proven by the various National Treasuries worldwide buying TBTF Corporate debt to prevent the collapse of the bond market and the bankruptcy of the parent corporations.

There are many "investment" indexes, small cap, medium, big cap etc. the question is which will survive a bear market, it's pointless "investing" in a small cap index fund if it's comprised of small companies which will not survive a "bust/bear" cycle, however it will do well in a Bull Market but then again virtually everything does well in a Bull Market.

Unless I'm certain that the index is comprised of solely to big to fail companies, I would not invest in it.
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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you can see what's inside an index like VWRP, just stocks of Microsoft, Apple and such. No funny business. And there's no way to avoid market bears/drops, just you need the long term patience to see it through. It is a game for the long term
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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having said all that I'm going to contradict myself about timing the market: it just feels very silly at present:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55578403
The owner of a business which has only just made its first annual profit and is still a minnow compared to the likes of Toyota - or Amazon - is now the world's richest person.

It is the fact that Tesla's share price has increased more than seven-fold in the past year that has sent Elon Musk's fortune rocketing past that of Jeff Bezos.

To believe the electric car-maker's worth could rise so rapidly in just 12 months is the ultimate example of irrational exuberance.
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

Post by johngalt »

I was going to make a similar comment re: Tesla - buy you beat me to it.
Image

Image
dunno
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

Post by dunno »

nikos wrote: 2021 Jan 08, 14:12it just feels very silly at present:
Data to quantify that feeling of "Silliness".
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

When a companies P.E. ratio is "silly" its time to bail.

To assist with visualising to big to fail corporate Bonds,
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

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interesting curves, proving a big inflationary drive for silliness :)
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Re: blog: buy low sell high

Post by dunno »

Another visualization of past and Current Bull runs to help quantify when markets are "silly".

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visual ... odern-era/
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