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blog: test covid tests

Post by nikos » 2021 Apr 11, 07:13

here's the comment area for today's blog post found at
https://www.zabkat.com/blog/test-covid-rapid-tests.htm

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by drac » 2021 Apr 11, 21:58

The problem with your school example is that many people are asymptomatic. So you do not necessarily know who has it and who does not. Mathematically you would need to assign a probability of being able to determine (without a test) who (or how many) are actually infected. Testing everyone is the only way to know - and of course that is degraded by the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the test.

And of course since many students will be asymptomatic, you would need to test (or monitor) the family of each student since they may have caught the disease from the asymptomatic student.

Realistically, testing should only be done on people who are suspected of having the disease so treatment can me started (if needed).

Despite the above comments, I do appreciate you pointing out the fallacy of the accuracy numbers in suggesting that one testing is providing a meaningful indication of whether one has the disease.

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by nikos » 2021 Apr 12, 05:33

the tests are even less reliable on asymptomatic people, if you read the data. You may as well flip coins. It's that simple

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by Brig » 2021 Apr 12, 16:07

Once again Nikos, rather than be right, you prefer to appear un-fooled. Rapid tests are less reliable than the nasal swabs and others. So, the answer to that, as you say, is either to use two or three rapid tests or use the better tests. Simple. Testing is good, it reveals who is sick, who needs treatment. But you jump over that to bemoaning the impracticality of sticking swabs into 7 billion people's noses. Think about wild fires, California has lots of them, and they're often widespread. The answer is not to dowse the entire state with water, just the burning parts.

In any case, we're now in the inoculation phase of the pandemic. If you suspect you might be sick, get tested, of course--but get vaccinated as soon as you possibly can.

Vaccinating 7 billion people is a worthy goal that probably won't happen. Because money. That's why the vaccine technology should be open source and freely available. That would make the idea of 7 billion vaccinated people not so far fetched.

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by nikos » 2021 Apr 12, 16:16

I didn't say not to vaccinate people (although I won't be), I said its statistically idiotic to test everybody on a weekly basis, in general as sampling goes, and in particular because of the inaccuracy of the tests used.

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by drac » 2021 Apr 12, 18:55

Nikos, since you brought up the subject, would you share your rationale for not being vaccinated?

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by johngalt » 2021 Apr 12, 20:24

I read an article (actually a pair of articles, one on the Pfizer vaccine and one on the Moderna vaccine, both in the New York Times) that very similarly stated what you wrote here in the article.

I need more time to analyze your blog, but a lot of what you've written I am in agreement with. *PART* of the problem, though, is that we have technology to assist us to prevent the rapid spread of a disease that we've not had in previous pandemics, and to not at least try would be detrimental even more so than trying to combat the spread of the disease. even if it is partially (or even totally) a failure.

I'll read it fully again maybe later tonight and add my own comments. I had a similar discussion in another forum about the vaccines and the hype - too many people are blindly thinking that the vaccines will lead to herd immunity - it doesn't work that way. mRNA transcription is a crapshoot at best, and the effectiveness (versus the efficacy, which the NYT articles also explain the difference) has not been proven - but that is to be expected, because this disease, as far as we know, has only been around for 16 months. That's a shorter period than is attributed to most medical trials anyway.

More on this later after reading and proving my own take and research to back it up.
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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by dunno » 2021 Apr 13, 03:48

Problem is that the symptoms for the common flu are very similar to CV-XIX's so the dilemma is if one is feeling flu-ish does one get tested ?. Then considering that the tests are unreliable and considering that the fatality rate for under 50's is as much if not less than with the traditional flu, what would you do. If I was < 50, healthy, good immune system, a nutritional diet, I would sit it out. keep some Ivermectin handy, feel flu-ish take some and eradicate scabies once and for all :-)

Being >50 in good health, I'm not going to get myself vaccinated especially not with the DNA/mRNA experimental vaccines, these things aren't tailored to a individuals DNA hence there's no idea what the immediate or the long term effects will be of tinkering with DNA/mRNA. AstraZeneca, (which has now been re-branded), has issues, that western governments are RELUCTANTLY releasing negative information is a good sign that all is not well there.

The Chinese; Indian Covax, and Russian vaccines are traditional vaccines which is a good thing, yet there's major push back from the west for any of those vaccines, I wonder why.. Western governments have muddied the water so much with their dis-information that every one is wondering what the truth is, Main stream media aren't helping either, they're complicit.
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.

There was a shark attack recently and the cause of death was determined to be CV-XIX, no not really but it seems that all fatalities are now being linked to CV-XIX, and they wonder why the public is pushing back...

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by nikos » 2021 Apr 13, 05:19

dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 03:48
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.
:D
my sentiments exactly!
in Cyprus with more donkeys than people, I just don't know of anybody that had (never mind died of) covid. All there is are "positive tests" most of them probably false. They get all worked up because intensive care units are 90% full (and that means 100 beds for all the island!), which could be people sick by induced anxiety for all i'm concerned :)

I will allow that in more dense areas like London or new York, things may be different, and this could be a mean flu, killing 2-3 times more than regular flu infections. Still not a big deal, or rather not a deal to put all the whole planet on hold.

if you examine country statistics, there are many different "prevention policies" applied (lockdowns, masks, rapid tests) but not much difference in actual death rates. So this implies that whatever countries do, have no real effect, which in turn translates to "leave us alone with your stoopid mass testing" (even rapid tests require a painful poke up the nose, and i'm not having my little kids treated that way for no reason)

not everybody needs to be vaccinated to reach "herd immunity", so let those that feel like it get the jab and leave the rest of us healthy people alone :)

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by dunno » 2021 Apr 13, 07:15

nikos wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 05:19
(even rapid tests require a painful poke up the nose, and i'm not having my little kids treated that way for no reason)
Yep its astounding that they haven't developed a method of testing that is less intrusive, why not a little pin prick of the finger.
When I was doing my obligatory 6 monthly medical check ups they would take blood samples 5 vials of it, when I questioned the vampire nature of it I was told that "blood testing IS the only way to determine anything" and they would test for everything, from parasites to syphilis, to forbidden substances AND HIV, heck if I had had a Bun sprinkled with poppy seeds it would show up as a red flag.

Why do they need to stick a bloody cotton swab so far up one's nose that it induces pain, if they can do DNA testing off a cigarette butt why the need to almost pierce the blood brain barrier, I really don't get that, It's also one of the reasons I won't go for testing, if they want to test me take blood.

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by johngalt » 2021 Apr 13, 15:00

dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 03:48
Problem is that the symptoms for the common flu are very similar to CV-XIX's so the dilemma is if one is feeling flu-ish does one get tested ?. Then considering that the tests are unreliable and considering that the fatality rate for under 50's is as much if not less than with the traditional flu, what would you do. If I was < 50, healthy, good immune system, a nutritional diet, I would sit it out. keep some Ivermectin handy, feel flu-ish take some and eradicate scabies once and for all :-)

Being >50 in good health, I'm not going to get myself vaccinated especially not with the DNA/mRNA experimental vaccines, these things aren't tailored to a individuals DNA hence there's no idea what the immediate or the long term effects will be of tinkering with DNA/mRNA. AstraZeneca, (which has now been re-branded), has issues, that western governments are RELUCTANTLY releasing negative information is a good sign that all is not well there.

The Chinese; Indian Covax, and Russian vaccines are traditional vaccines which is a good thing, yet there's major push back from the west for any of those vaccines, I wonder why.. Western governments have muddied the water so much with their dis-information that every one is wondering what the truth is, Main stream media aren't helping either, they're complicit.
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.

There was a shark attack recently and the cause of death was determined to be CV-XIX, no not really but it seems that all fatalities are now being linked to CV-XIX, and they wonder why the public is pushing back...
While for the most part I agree with your post, I argue that you cannot generalize that the symptoms are the same between the 2. For one thing, COVID causes massive shortness of breath, loss of sense of smell (and usually acute), and the complications that arise from infection are far more sever than with a cold. So, in this day and age, yes, if you think you are sick, get tested. Then get tested again. Finally get tested a 3rd time, for that warm fuzzy feeling.

Doesn't mean you have to actually get vaccinated - but 2 positives and you should probably be staying home, not out and about infecting other people. Not getting tested if you feel sick is on you and you alone - and thinking "It's just the FLU, when so many millions have already died, is also on you.
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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by pj » 2021 Apr 13, 15:33

nikos wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 05:19
dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 03:48
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.
:D
my sentiments exactly!
in Cyprus with more donkeys than people, I just don't know of anybody that had (never mind died of) covid. All there is are "positive tests" most of them probably false. They get all worked up because intensive care units are 90% full (and that means 100 beds for all the island!), which could be people sick by induced anxiety for all i'm concerned :)

I will allow that in more dense areas like London or new York, things may be different, and this could be a mean flu, killing 2-3 times more than regular flu infections. Still not a big deal, or rather not a deal to put all the whole planet on hold.

if you examine country statistics, there are many different "prevention policies" applied (lockdowns, masks, rapid tests) but not much difference in actual death rates. So this implies that whatever countries do, have no real effect, which in turn translates to "leave us alone with your stoopid mass testing" (even rapid tests require a painful poke up the nose, and i'm not having my little kids treated that way for no reason)

not everybody needs to be vaccinated to reach "herd immunity", so let those that feel like it get the jab and leave the rest of us healthy people alone :)
Not sure why everyone is upset with the swab testing. It was mildly uncomfortable, had results in <30 minutes, which agreed with the antibody test results from the 5 times I've donated blood since the "pandemic" started.

Anyway, SO and I have both been shot twice with Pfizer, no strange symptoms yet (except for this strange feeling that everything Bill Gates says must be followed), but being past child-bearing years I'm not so much worried about my DNA, as I am about my (bad) knees.

As far as the reports of millions of deaths, yes, well millions of people die every year. That's a fact. The reasons they died are up for debate, and the numbers attributed having died DUE TO COVID is definitely suspect (gunshot victims being added to the numbers ???), but the feeling governments were all ready to impose draconian restrictions at the drop of a hat leaves one wondering how much pre-planning went on. But that's just crazy, right?

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by johngalt » 2021 Apr 13, 15:37

nikos wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 05:19
dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 03:48
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.
:D
my sentiments exactly!
in Cyprus with more donkeys than people, I just don't know of anybody that had (never mind died of) covid. All there is are "positive tests" most of them probably false. They get all worked up because intensive care units are 90% full (and that means 100 beds for all the island!), which could be people sick by induced anxiety for all i'm concerned :)

I will allow that in more dense areas like London or new York, things may be different, and this could be a mean flu, killing 2-3 times more than regular flu infections. Still not a big deal, or rather not a deal to put all the whole planet on hold.

if you examine country statistics, there are many different "prevention policies" applied (lockdowns, masks, rapid tests) but not much difference in actual death rates. So this implies that whatever countries do, have no real effect, which in turn translates to "leave us alone with your stoopid mass testing" (even rapid tests require a painful poke up the nose, and i'm not having my little kids treated that way for no reason)

not everybody needs to be vaccinated to reach "herd immunity", so let those that feel like it get the jab and leave the rest of us healthy people alone :)
They get worked up because, unlike the flu, if you get this your mortality rate drops like a 1-ton rock in the middle of the ocean.

This thing is not just killing people in the short term, Nikos, it is also doing irreparable neurological harm to survivors. It's led to a surge in what was initially thought of as Kawasaki disease in children, but is now being categorized as a syndrome with similar symptoms, with the usual caveats that most kids get better, but some get to the point of it being life threatening. People are losing their sense of smell for months at a time, some still haven't gotten it back nearly a year after infection. Some of the studies on long terms effects are yielding some surprising and disturbing results:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lane ... 4/fulltext

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... al-effects

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/90587

And if you really delve deep into the disease itself, you find more relevant things to be worried about, like this:
While losing the sense of smell may not seem serious at first, it is still important, since it is tied directly to brain function.

To enter cells, SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors on cell membranes. The olfactory bulb, which is the part of the brain receiving sensations of smell, harbors a high concentration of these receptors. The olfactory bulb also has strong connections to the hippocampus — the area responsible for memory.

According to Dr. de Erausquin, “The trail of the virus, when it invades the brain, leads almost straight to the hippocampus.”

“That is believed to be one of the sources of the cognitive impairment observed in COVID-19 patients. We suspect it may also be part of the reason why there will be an accelerated cognitive decline over time in susceptible individuals,” he adds.

Among severe neurological issues during SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients may develop fluid on the brain, inflammation in the brain, and seizures.
Now, although there is ongoing coverage on the disease almost everywhere, I'm just randomly picking this one after a search: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/coronavirus

From that link, front page, is this article: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1263868

It's not just the symptoms that you encounter while infected - headaches, loss of sense of smell, aches, massive shortness of breath - it's all the things that come after.

Being a mathematician myself, sure, I get that a single test is not a very good point of reference. But this disease is a serious threat to humanity at multiple levels - not only in the swift ability to spread, but in the long term after effects. It's not the Flu - even worst case scenario estimates of FLU deaths here in the US do not exceed 100,000 people. COVID for 20202 killed 345,000 people. In addition, over the last 6 months the need for Mental Health assistance with anxiety and depressive disorders rose faster than normal, according to https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... mm7013e2_w And there are cases being reported of people becoming re-infected after being infected once, providing no (long term) immunity.

This is a debilitating disease. You're welcome to choose to do as you please, but this is not something to play with - I don't ever advocate influenza vaccinations - because I better understand than the general public how viruses change, and just how ineffective those are / can be. I'm also not one to push anyone to vaccinate for anything - I've not done it myself. I also stay at home 95% of the time now. I go out only as needed, I wear a combination of 2 cloth masks, I come home and shower immediately after being out around people, and take lots of other measures to keep me safe. I've made it a habit to smell my coffee canister every morning to verify I can still smell things, I toss clothes worn outside of the house in the washer to be washed after coming back home, I'm making more use of medicinally active plants in my diet, so many other things - but it's a matter of being safe. If I lose my sense of smell? Damn well bet I'm getting tested - repeatedly - so I can evaluate my options.

And if you think this is all a joke - please, go volunteer in a hospital that is treating COVID-19 patients and sufferers. They (the hospitals and community centers and the medical personnel) need the help, and *if* you believe it is a hoax, you need the eye opener.

Now, as to plans to force testing - that is about as stupid (and guaranteed to fail) as Prohibition, or outlawing guns. Not gonna happen. But neither is it wise to count positive tests on a single test - I'll agree with that 100%, as that is much of the premise of your blog.

My sister felt sick after a work outing in the beginning of February - and was astute enough to realize it might have been COIVD - she tested, with both types of tests available, and both were positive - which she already knew at that point - she had all the classic symptoms, especially lack of smell and massive shortness of breath / fatigue (she usually walked 7-10 miles per day before). She still has very little smell, only sharply pungent smells make it into her brain to be semi-recognized, and she cannot go over 2 miles walking without having to stop due to sheer fatigue. It's been 2 months, for her. For several classmates of mine (class of 1988) their families are bereaved - because they passed so quickly, so suddenly, and in one verified case, treatment was not sought "because it felt like the flu".

In spite of the basic greed of politicians and corporations, in spite of basic human selfishness that a lot of people are exhibiting, this disease is much, much worse. Regardless of your choices, take care of yourself and your loved ones. You'll never, ever want to go through the "What if I had done more, would they still be here?" phase of guilt. It sucks.
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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by johngalt » 2021 Apr 13, 15:41

pj wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 15:33
nikos wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 05:19
dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 03:48
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.
:D
my sentiments exactly!
in Cyprus with more donkeys than people, I just don't know of anybody that had (never mind died of) covid. All there is are "positive tests" most of them probably false. They get all worked up because intensive care units are 90% full (and that means 100 beds for all the island!), which could be people sick by induced anxiety for all i'm concerned :)

I will allow that in more dense areas like London or new York, things may be different, and this could be a mean flu, killing 2-3 times more than regular flu infections. Still not a big deal, or rather not a deal to put all the whole planet on hold.

if you examine country statistics, there are many different "prevention policies" applied (lockdowns, masks, rapid tests) but not much difference in actual death rates. So this implies that whatever countries do, have no real effect, which in turn translates to "leave us alone with your stoopid mass testing" (even rapid tests require a painful poke up the nose, and i'm not having my little kids treated that way for no reason)

not everybody needs to be vaccinated to reach "herd immunity", so let those that feel like it get the jab and leave the rest of us healthy people alone :)
Not sure why everyone is upset with the swab testing. It was mildly uncomfortable, had results in <30 minutes, which agreed with the antibody test results from the 5 times I've donated blood since the "pandemic" started.

Anyway, SO and I have both been shot twice with Pfizer, no strange symptoms yet (except for this strange feeling that everything Bill Gates says must be followed), but being past child-bearing years I'm not so much worried about my DNA, as I am about my (bad) knees.

As far as the reports of millions of deaths, yes, well millions of people die every year. That's a fact. The reasons they died are up for debate, and the numbers attributed having died DUE TO COVID is definitely suspect (gunshot victims being added to the numbers ???), but the feeling governments were all ready to impose draconian restrictions at the drop of a hat leaves one wondering how much pre-planning went on. But that's just crazy, right?
It does depend upon who is administering the test. Some people are ... 'gentler' ... than others. And some people's noses are ... more sensitive ... than others.

As for the Draconian rules to control people - no, it's not crazy.

but that doesn't make the disease any less real. Which I'm guessing you agree with me already since you're vaccinated.

But you miss one point - although millions die every year, from other causes, these millions dead from COVID are in addition to those. Not replacing them.

Are the numbers 100% accurate? hell, I'd doubt the veracity of at least half - but it's still in the millions verified dead from the disease directly. And as noted above in my reply to Nikos- it's not just the deaths. Those left alive after infection are not always fully well again.
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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by nikos » 2021 Apr 13, 16:29

every year half a million (worldwide) die of normal flu. This year I read that "in Greece nobody died of flu". You draw your conclusions about the data (lies, damned lies and statistics)
pj wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 15:33
numbers ???), but the feeling governments were all ready to impose draconian restrictions at the drop of a hat leaves one wondering how much pre-planning went on. But that's just crazy, right?
this is the "average joe" argument: if this was nothing to fear, would all the world governments impose such measures and inconvenience and financial ruin, just so some pharma companies would make a few billion?. It makes sense and I don't have an answer.

this cannot be a global conspiracy against people. No way all the governments could agree on a policy -- unless aliens infiltrated all the parliaments :)

so covid bottom line: big problem yes, but big overreaction also yes. What would we do if this was a real plague killing half the population?

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