blog: test covid tests

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drac
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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by drac » 2021 Apr 13, 22:08

You math people should be wary of throwing around numbers. In a typical year about 50,000 people in the US die from flu. About 350,000 died from Covid in a year. That is a death rate that is 6 times that of flu. But those numbers are meaningless because we have a flu vaccine and many people get it every year. So those 50,000 flu deaths are for a population that has a large number of vaccinations. Look at the death rate for Covid based on total infected - not total population. Compare that to the population, and the death rate for flu is about 0.15% while the death rate for Covid is around 2%. And it can be around 15% in seniors and people with underlying conditions. Also, as pointed out, there are a lot of ongoing neurological issues with Covid that does not exist with the flu. So, if one is young and healthy, they may choose to take their chances. The odds of their dying are low. But young people ARE suffering from long term effects that are not present with the flu. I am a senior with underlying conditions so I (and my wife) are fully vaccinated. I do not assume that is going to protect me - so I am still very careful and only leave the house for important things. Though now that I am vaccinated I am going to the barber again and have a dentist appointment tomorrow.

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by RTC » 2021 Apr 13, 22:58

johngalt wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 15:37
nikos wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 05:19
dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 13, 03:48
If this pandemic were so vicious and deadly the dead would be pilling up in the streets, the stench of death would be everywhere, yet it isn't. The stats for the death rate for under 50's says it all.
:D
my sentiments exactly!
in Cyprus with more donkeys than people, I just don't know of anybody that had (never mind died of) covid. All there is are "positive tests" most of them probably false. They get all worked up because intensive care units are 90% full (and that means 100 beds for all the island!), which could be people sick by induced anxiety for all i'm concerned :)

I will allow that in more dense areas like London or new York, things may be different, and this could be a mean flu, killing 2-3 times more than regular flu infections. Still not a big deal, or rather not a deal to put all the whole planet on hold.

if you examine country statistics, there are many different "prevention policies" applied (lockdowns, masks, rapid tests) but not much difference in actual death rates. So this implies that whatever countries do, have no real effect, which in turn translates to "leave us alone with your stoopid mass testing" (even rapid tests require a painful poke up the nose, and i'm not having my little kids treated that way for no reason)

not everybody needs to be vaccinated to reach "herd immunity", so let those that feel like it get the jab and leave the rest of us healthy people alone :)
They get worked up because, unlike the flu, if you get this your mortality rate drops like a 1-ton rock in the middle of the ocean.

This thing is not just killing people in the short term, Nikos, it is also doing irreparable neurological harm to survivors. It's led to a surge in what was initially thought of as Kawasaki disease in children, but is now being categorized as a syndrome with similar symptoms, with the usual caveats that most kids get better, but some get to the point of it being life threatening. People are losing their sense of smell for months at a time, some still haven't gotten it back nearly a year after infection. Some of the studies on long terms effects are yielding some surprising and disturbing results:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lane ... 4/fulltext

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... al-effects

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/90587

And if you really delve deep into the disease itself, you find more relevant things to be worried about, like this:
While losing the sense of smell may not seem serious at first, it is still important, since it is tied directly to brain function.

To enter cells, SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors on cell membranes. The olfactory bulb, which is the part of the brain receiving sensations of smell, harbors a high concentration of these receptors. The olfactory bulb also has strong connections to the hippocampus — the area responsible for memory.

According to Dr. de Erausquin, “The trail of the virus, when it invades the brain, leads almost straight to the hippocampus.”

“That is believed to be one of the sources of the cognitive impairment observed in COVID-19 patients. We suspect it may also be part of the reason why there will be an accelerated cognitive decline over time in susceptible individuals,” he adds.

Among severe neurological issues during SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients may develop fluid on the brain, inflammation in the brain, and seizures.
Now, although there is ongoing coverage on the disease almost everywhere, I'm just randomly picking this one after a search: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/coronavirus

From that link, front page, is this article: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1263868

It's not just the symptoms that you encounter while infected - headaches, loss of sense of smell, aches, massive shortness of breath - it's all the things that come after.

Being a mathematician myself, sure, I get that a single test is not a very good point of reference. But this disease is a serious threat to humanity at multiple levels - not only in the swift ability to spread, but in the long term after effects. It's not the Flu - even worst case scenario estimates of FLU deaths here in the US do not exceed 100,000 people. COVID for 20202 killed 345,000 people. In addition, over the last 6 months the need for Mental Health assistance with anxiety and depressive disorders rose faster than normal, according to https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... mm7013e2_w And there are cases being reported of people becoming re-infected after being infected once, providing no (long term) immunity.

This is a debilitating disease. You're welcome to choose to do as you please, but this is not something to play with - I don't ever advocate influenza vaccinations - because I better understand than the general public how viruses change, and just how ineffective those are / can be. I'm also not one to push anyone to vaccinate for anything - I've not done it myself. I also stay at home 95% of the time now. I go out only as needed, I wear a combination of 2 cloth masks, I come home and shower immediately after being out around people, and take lots of other measures to keep me safe. I've made it a habit to smell my coffee canister every morning to verify I can still smell things, I toss clothes worn outside of the house in the washer to be washed after coming back home, I'm making more use of medicinally active plants in my diet, so many other things - but it's a matter of being safe. If I lose my sense of smell? Damn well bet I'm getting tested - repeatedly - so I can evaluate my options.

And if you think this is all a joke - please, go volunteer in a hospital that is treating COVID-19 patients and sufferers. They (the hospitals and community centers and the medical personnel) need the help, and *if* you believe it is a hoax, you need the eye opener.

Now, as to plans to force testing - that is about as stupid (and guaranteed to fail) as Prohibition, or outlawing guns. Not gonna happen. But neither is it wise to count positive tests on a single test - I'll agree with that 100%, as that is much of the premise of your blog.

My sister felt sick after a work outing in the beginning of February - and was astute enough to realize it might have been COIVD - she tested, with both types of tests available, and both were positive - which she already knew at that point - she had all the classic symptoms, especially lack of smell and massive shortness of breath / fatigue (she usually walked 7-10 miles per day before). She still has very little smell, only sharply pungent smells make it into her brain to be semi-recognized, and she cannot go over 2 miles walking without having to stop due to sheer fatigue. It's been 2 months, for her. For several classmates of mine (class of 1988) their families are bereaved - because they passed so quickly, so suddenly, and in one verified case, treatment was not sought "because it felt like the flu".

In spite of the basic greed of politicians and corporations, in spite of basic human selfishness that a lot of people are exhibiting, this disease is much, much worse. Regardless of your choices, take care of yourself and your loved ones. You'll never, ever want to go through the "What if I had done more, would they still be here?" phase of guilt. It sucks.
I agree 100% with johngalt...I'm not a mathematician but the explanation Nikos gave in the blog is loud and clear. I'm an MD not directly involved in treatment of C19 patients but what I've seen and heard of my colleagues Sars-CoV2 is a badass disease...True: a large portion of infected people will experience mild symptoms, a small percentage will need to be in the hospital and a smaller percentage will end up in the ICU but this group has a high mortality rate. They are either the older people or people with comorbidities. But we also know the younger ones without any significant past medical history who died because of Sars-CoV2.
Now it's up to you to decide to get a jab or not...no one can enforce (or should enforce) that.
We're hardly capable to treat virus infections...to me vaccination is the only way to shorten this pandemic. Eventually it will blow over like the previous pandemics in history (spanish flu around 1918-1920)

So forgive me for quoting the whole text but johngalt hits the nail right on the head with regards to both early and late sequelae of Sars-CoV2...

just my 2 cents...and like PJ hitting back into the hammock with a glass of Laphroaig to disinfect the throat :beer:

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by dunno » 2021 Apr 14, 04:34

What astounds me about all the information that you guys have found and linked to is that not one of you has mentioned possible treatments for preventing or curing CV-XIX, now, why is this?, why is it that there's very little to no information on preventing CV-XiX ?, Western media does its best to debunk any discussion about treating and curing CV-XIX without a vaccine.
Vitamin D (fat soluble don't over dose), Zinc, Malaria Prophylaxis, Ivermectin, to name but a few of the medications which have been touted to work, yet not a peep from western media about this. Its very strange to me that there is no positive information from the WHO/EMA/FDA concerning treatment of CV-XIX, WHY ?, is it because Orange Man still bad... there's a really bizarre dystopian atmosphere about the lack of reliable honest information.

If I'm ever forced to be vaccinated I will insist on a specific vaccine or not at all, fortunately I live on a third world Island which gets hand outs of vaccines frowned upon by the WHO/EMA/FDA. The DNA/mRNA vaccines, no chance, nor the AstraZeneca series vaccines, beware that they're re-branding some vaccines to try to over-come the side effects/bad publicity of their product.

I also fast occasionally which is good for the immune system, wakes it up. just beware that if you're carrying body/organ fat and you fast it will release junk/toxins which are stored in the fat as it dissolves so if you develop cold sores or break out in pimples, don't panic. but hey I'm not a doctor...just a guy who has delved into genes and body mechanics as a hobby, my genetic studies has led me to believe that there are ONLY four primary molecules in the DNA structure, and they are "Fed Up", "Fvck Up", "Stupid", "Lazy" place those on a sliding scale and voila there's human nature for you.

*returns to hammock with cold glass*

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by pj » 2021 Apr 14, 15:25

dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 14, 04:34
...just a guy who has delved into genes and body mechanics as a hobby, my genetic studies has led me to believe that there are ONLY four primary molecules in the DNA structure, and they are "Fed Up", "Fvck Up", "Stupid", "Lazy" place those on a sliding scale and voila there's human nature for you.

*returns to hammock with cold glass*
So my attitude really is based on genetics!

----------------------
PJ in (still a working stiff, no hammock in my yard :( ) FL

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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by johngalt » 2021 Apr 23, 16:47

Every year that half a million people died of the flu was every year in which countries also were not enforcing social distancing and PPE, also.

The conclusions have already been drawn - the reason people die of infectious diseases is because they are not protected from them. COVID-19 restrictions helped prevent a much larger fatal outcome of this and other infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted through air and on surfaces.
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Re: blog: test covid tests

Post by johngalt » 2021 Apr 23, 17:02

dunno wrote:
2021 Apr 14, 04:34
What astounds me about all the information that you guys have found and linked to is that not one of you has mentioned possible treatments for preventing or curing CV-XIX, now, why is this?, why is it that there's very little to no information on preventing CV-XiX ?, Western media does its best to debunk any discussion about treating and curing CV-XIX without a vaccine.
Vitamin D (fat soluble don't over dose), Zinc, Malaria Prophylaxis, Ivermectin, to name but a few of the medications which have been touted to work, yet not a peep from western media about this. Its very strange to me that there is no positive information from the WHO/EMA/FDA concerning treatment of CV-XIX, WHY ?, is it because Orange Man still bad... there's a really bizarre dystopian atmosphere about the lack of reliable honest information.

If I'm ever forced to be vaccinated I will insist on a specific vaccine or not at all, fortunately I live on a third world Island which gets hand outs of vaccines frowned upon by the WHO/EMA/FDA. The DNA/mRNA vaccines, no chance, nor the AstraZeneca series vaccines, beware that they're re-branding some vaccines to try to over-come the side effects/bad publicity of their product.

I also fast occasionally which is good for the immune system, wakes it up. just beware that if you're carrying body/organ fat and you fast it will release junk/toxins which are stored in the fat as it dissolves so if you develop cold sores or break out in pimples, don't panic. but hey I'm not a doctor...just a guy who has delved into genes and body mechanics as a hobby, my genetic studies has led me to believe that there are ONLY four primary molecules in the DNA structure, and they are "Fed Up", "Fvck Up", "Stupid", "Lazy" place those on a sliding scale and voila there's human nature for you.

*returns to hammock with cold glass*
Because no one who was trying to do that had a solution for the here and now - and that is what we needed right now.

However, there is this:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 040521.php

This holds a lot of promise for the future - but people were getting infected and dying at staggering rates in the short term. Think about it - the first time we ever heard of COVID-19 was officially in December 2019. That is not even 17 months ago. Seventeen months.

The vaccines that were developed for the short term were done so to help mitigate, primarily, the spread of the disease as well as the ease of infection in human beings - these are not full solutions but more like temporary stop-gap measures to keep it in check as much as possible, until better alternatives can be developed. Because the pace at which the clinical trials run at is seemingly glacial, but crucial to understanding both the risks of and effects of the vaccination process against communicable diseases.

My guess is that WRAIR is not the only site / entity in the world that is researching long-term solutions - after all, SARS-related viruses have been around for a while now.

As for information on preventing it - we had the whole PPE and social distancing aspect of the world's societies, the having to stay at home to work, / remotely, etc. This thing is not good, and my sister who is much, much more biophysically savant than I ma (organic food, regular exercise, controlled foods (including measured portions / caloric intake monitoring, regular fluid intake (90% filtered water, no special additives), fasting, yoga, and much much more - contracted COVID-19 in early Feb. She's gotten better, but it was touch and go for a few weeks, and she has only regained maybe 20% of her sense of smell, her mental well-being is still not 100% (she forgets things more easily than ever before, even being 5 years my junior) and her energy is around 90% or so, according to her.

It is not something that you can guarantee to be not exposed to, unless your lifestyle also includes 0 contact with the outside world. Much like computers and data, in digital form , can always be hacked - unless a computer is connected to 0 other systems in any way, manner, or fashion.
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